The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has reported sustained global trade stability in the final quarter of 2024, with early 2025 data signaling continued growth despite escalating risks from tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer, the indicator rose marginally to 102.8 in early 2025 from 102.7 in December 2024, reflecting trade volumes above trend levels. A reading above 100 denotes stronger-than-expected growth, while sub-100 figures indicate underperformance. The 2024 Q3 results reinforced this trend, showing a 3.3% year-on-year expansion in merchandise trade volumes, aligning with the WTO’s annual forecast of 2.7% growth.
However, the report highlights growing trade policy uncertainty , with looming tariffs threatening to disrupt stability. Regional disparities also emerged: North American imports and Asian exports surpassed expectations, while European trade lagged due to weak export and import activity.
Sector Spotlight:
- Automotive products (105.5) , container shipping (103.7) , and air freight (102.7) drove the strongest demand.
- Export orders (101.0) and electronic components (102.3) hovered near baseline, signaling cautious optimism.
Economists warn that businesses may have front-loaded imports ahead of potential policy shifts, risking a demand slowdown later in 2025. The WTO emphasized that geopolitical tensions and protectionist measures could strain supply chains and weaken trade performance by mid-2025.
The organisation’s upcoming Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report (April 2025) will provide deeper insights into these dynamics. For now, the resilience of sectors like automotive and logistics offers hope—but sustained growth hinges on resolving trade policy uncertainties.
Key Takeaway:
While 2025 began with positive trade momentum, the interplay of tariffs, geopolitical risks, and economic volatility will determine whether global commerce continues its recovery or confronts renewed headwinds.
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